He is in the top 10 percent in maxEV and xBA, and the new SB rules could benefit someone with his speed. It's understandable that fantasy managers who drafted him thinking they secured a 30/30 guy were disappointed at the end of the season. 1 overall pick. Heading into the season, Juan Soto is the leading candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, which feels ridiculous to say about a guy who still ended with a WAR of 5.2. The question becomes what his fourth MLB season will bring. Where do you draft the superstar who will only play half the season at most? Away from Denver, the 33-year-old hit seven homers with a .214 average and .274 wOBA. His Statcast page is filled with red in every area except barrel% and sprint speed. Sale wasn't completely back to form in his immediate return from Tommy John surgery, but he was as consistent of an ace as you could find before the procedure and should still have a few years to make good on this discount. His xwOBA and xSLG are both near the 90th percentile, and he hit particularly well at Camden Yards in spite of the extended left field fence. I can't account for any of those. Willy Adames had the second-most home runs by a shortstop (31) in 2022, finishing only two behind Corey Seager for the lead. Buxton played in only 92 games last year, 61 in 2021, 87 in 2019, and 28 in 2018. The only statistical knock on the 30-year-old has been two straight years of decreasing wOBA, but that's splitting hairs with it sitting in the .360 range even after the "decline." All that hype you've been hearing about Byron Buxton over the years finally came to fruition in 2021, but not without the usual bumps and bruises. The surface stats are much uglier than fantasy managers have been used to seeing. However, beware the innings limit that is sure to come. Nico Hoerner should be the Cubs' everyday second baseman, and he should bat near the top of the lineup. After the ASB, he hit the IL with a back strain and had four saves, an ERA of 4.44, and a 25:13 K:BB ratio. This is exactly where I had Wander Franco in last year's top 50 keepers, so it seems fitting to devote it to this year's stud-in-waiting. Gerrit Cole came in right behind him with an ADP of 7.19. Of note, he increased his stolen bases, and this trend could continue in 2023 with the new baserunning rules. Dont trust any 1 expert? Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2023: Top sleepers from proven model that forecasted Tommy Edman's big year Then in 2022, Urquidy returned to make 29 appearances (28 starts) and went 13-8 with a 3. Don't have an account? However, his xwOBA was .374, so you can believe in those on-base skills going forward. While he may not be a slam dunk high-round pick, his upside makes him worthy of his ADP. If you don't, it is wise to stay clear. This week, I take a look at two recent high-profile promotions in RotoBallers Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball prospects. He should also get to move back to the infield and play 1B now that Jose Abreu is in Houston. This wasn't really in question before his arrival in the big leagues last summer, but he slashed .295/.383/.450 in 72 games for the Royals when he finally got the call-up. Nobody saw Mullins coming, at least to the extent of him being the game's only 30/30 man, which is generally how you happen into a low-cost keeper. The Blue Jays took the training wheels off Alek Manoah, and he responded with 196 2/3 innings of ace-level pitching. The Polar Bear was dethroned at the 2022 HR Derby but otherwise had a phenomenal campaign, hitting 40 HR with 131 RBI, 95 runs, and lowering his K% to a career-low 18.7. Fantasy managers can deal with those considering he is above the 90th percentile in Avg EV, Max EV, HardHit%, barrel%, outs above avg, and sprint speed. He had identical WHIPs of 1.08 and has started more than 30 games in four of the past five seasons (excluding 2020). He will turn 26 in May, and 2023 will show us what kind of long-term fantasy asset he may be. Clearly, the price is right. Looking beneath that, however, shows that his xERA was 3.51 with an xFIP of 2.94. If you buy into his first half from 2022, he is a steal at his current ADP. He added velocity to his fastball, resulting in a K/9 that jumped from 8.94 to 13.08 and grabbing 19 saves for the Red Birds. He has never played fewer than 125 games in a full season, including the six years before the arrival of the NL DH, where he got some extra at-bats on days off. His OBP was the second-lowest of his career at .323, but his xwOBA was .375, so hopefully, some improvement is in the cards for 2023. Pittsburgh may not win many games, but Bednar is clearly the closer and should be dominant in any uniform. He might be the best SP2 on the board and available in the sixth round in most drafts. Raisel Iglesias signed a four-year deal with the Angels to be their closer before the 2022 season and found himself collecting holds out of the Braves bullpen in August. Fantasy players need to note two important things: (1) The change from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will have some elevated effect to his ERA; and (2) Beware of drafting an oft-injured pitcher coming off a career year. Yes, that is Timmy Trumpet you're hearing as Edwin Diaz enters the chat. Dustin May had a long road to his return from Tommy John surgery, and the rustiness was apparent when he took the mound for the first time on August 20. Gilbert throws five different pitches, which keeps hitters off balance and allows him to be successful. He should easily be in the top 10 relief pitchers taken on draft day. MLB RANKINGS. He is in the 90th percentile and above in nine of 12 categories on Statcast, and even some slight regression in his overall numbers still leaves him in "elite" territory. He pitched 131 2/3 innings, striking out an obscene 202 batters with a devastating slider that came after his 98 mph fastball. His BABIP was an unsustainable .362, and his barrel%, exit velocity, sweet spot%, and walk rate all declined from 2021. He's going about 80 spots before Jorge Lopez, the actual closer, and handcuffing them isn't the worst idea. In 2021 drafts, Bo Bichette is already being taken as a 2nd round pick on average (ADP 25 since 1/1/21), so moving up 10+ spots is hardly a stretch. Jhoan Duran falls into the category of "too good to be a closer." In this Dynasty Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Prospects series, I will focus on key pitching fundamentals as quantified by my FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) evaluation system (my RotoBaller debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology). Batting in the middle of that Yankee lineup should result in a 24/75/75 season, which will suffice as a 2B1 given how shallow the position is. Even with the big contract, Swanson has proven that his durability is consistent, and he should bat at the top of the order, both of which make him a valuable fantasy asset. The injuries have been addressed: He surgically repaired his torn labrum shortly after his suspension for a nagging shoulder issue that plagued him, and he had surgery on his left wrist in October. The managers who took him were rewarded with more innings, strikeouts, and vastly improved ratios. Below you will find our early list of the top 50 MLB prospect rankings for fantasy baseball dynasty leagues ahead of the 2023 season. Kershaw has always pitched as though allowing walks offends him to his core, and he is still in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. With the Mets starting lineup getting stronger by the day, Lindor should continue to see good counting stats in the 25/80/90 range, and the new stolen base rules may help him get back to 20 in that department. His numbers were greatly improved from 2021 - he took more walks and struck out less while hitting 14 homers and stealing 12 bags in the limited time frame. Clayton Kershaw will be 35 on Opening Day, a game he has a high chance to start. Hoskins makes for a nice CI option. He is a safe pick in the late rounds of drafts. Riley sits in the 95th percentile or higher in HardHit%, xSLG, Barrel%, avgEV, MaxEV, and xwOBA, which puts him in a tiny group of batters who can provide power numbers without destroying your ratios. These metrics should give you pause as you face the decision to draft him in the 2nd/3rd round of your draft. The biggest downside is that he most likely does not have OF eligibility in your league, so make sure your UTIL slot is free for him. Fantasy managers dream each spring of a full season of this production, and if he manages to get to 500 plate appearances, he could be a steal at his current ADP of 78. Montgomery is never going to strike out a ton of batters, but he maintains good ratios and has started 30+ games in the last two years. While chances are good Diaz will not repeat these numbers in 2023, there is nothing to suggest that he won't return as an elite closer option with job security on a team that should win plenty of games. He continues to have an elite curve ball to match his 95-mph fastball and plays for the high-scoring Atlanta Braves. With a K% in the 96th percentile, the 25-year-old will be one of the Top 3 RP without a clear path to saves taken off the board. You are gaining good value with these players. The depicted round number presumes a 12-team league. A workhorse who began to find his groove as a bat-misser in the second half, Alcantara outshines Urias on a pure skills level, but the supporting cast, at least for now, drops him behind. It's possible they leave him in the 2-slot, especially until Bryce Harper returns, in which case he will continue to score runs and increase his RBI total. Andres Munoz is in the Top 3 relievers being drafted without a closer role due to his sheer dominance. While it's a terrible idea to chase wins on draft day, it is still worth noting that Kyle Wright had 21 of them in 2022. Rafael Devers is one of the best players in baseball who seems consistently overlooked in fantasy circles. The 28-year-old mixes a 96-mph fastball with a 77-mph curveball and 90-mph changeup for a 32.9 K%. The switch hitter did everything better when St. Louis put him in the leadoff slot, which led to an overall .265/.324/.400 slash line. The 153 innings were down from 213 1/3 in 2021, but this is actually encouraging in that the Phillies were cognizant of his usage. Some of the Statcast data suggests he overperformed slightly in 2021, but third basemen get every benefit of the doubt right now, particularly when the discount is so great. His strikeout rate crept above 30% for the first time since his rookie year. The good news is that he wasn't as bad as his surface numbers. Jul 6, 2022 We have several experts that maintain updated dynasty rankings to help you stay on top of dynasty player trade value throughout the year. Kyle Schwarber strikes out at such a large clip (29.9 K%) that it is easy to miss his dominance in other fantasy categories. Part of me hates the thought of devoting a precious keeper slot to a catcher who's still in development, but Varsho has a chance to be a unicorn at the position, splitting his time in the outfield and stealing a bunch of bases. But assuming he returns to the 180-190 innings mark, he is well worth the investment. Corey Seager can hit. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. A healthy Gallen is a steal at his ADP of 74. In traditional 5x5 leagues, Garcia can provide value from the fifth round on. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: fantasynews | arena: mlb | pageType: stories | Jeremy Pena arrived to Houston and promptly hit 22 HR and stole 11 bases. His ERA made the expected leap up to 3.71, but his BB% stayed in the single digits, meaning he may have repaired his proverbial Achilles heel for good. He may not duplicate his .325/.407/.511 line again, his three-year average of .312/.415/.563 says that range is possible with his elite skills. He's a Tier 3 closer with a higher upside if he lands the job. baseball Home; League. Top 300 Rankings for 2022 "Elig. Realmuto can top at the position. If you drafted Lucas Giolito in 2022, chances are good you spent a great deal of time debating whether or not to drop him, trade him, or hold. With some of the best bat-to-ball skills in last His BB% was actually higher than his K%, though there is a good chance this won't hold in 2023. He had an unsightly 6.42 ERA heading into August and was getting clobbered by hitters. The keeper discount may not be as much as you think, but seeing as he's still only 27, it could apply for several years. Valdez has more value in fantasy leagues where quality starts are a category because his pitching repertoire lends itself to more groundouts than strikeouts. Down the stretch in 2022, he showed improvement with a 45:8 K:BB ratio in August and September. Much like his teammate, George Kirby, Gilbert is a nice SP4 piece you can grab a little later in drafts. He is a solid producer who doesn't strike out a ton and makes good contact when he swings. His Statcast page reads like a warning when comparing his expected numbers with his actual ones. With a seasoned Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson in front of him, Santander will fill your power categories in the tenth round or so. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. Jose Abreu signed a 3-year, $58.5 million with the Astros to serve as their first baseman. His breakout season relied on an unprecedented workload that may not be sustainable as a two-way player, but the sizable discount makes up for the volatility for this obvious first-round talent. However, he does qualify at 3B, which might be even shallower this season. However, his 30+ HR, 100+ runs, and solid advanced metrics will contribute across the board, and he is worthy of a late first-round pick. In 2021, he had a 2.81 ERA but a 3.28 xFIP; in 2022, it was a 3.35 ERA and 2.75 xFIP. He should be better in 2023, but no promises he will return to his 2019-2021 form. In 2022, he appeared in only 114 games, a far cry from the 161 the year before. Not a bad way to introduce yourself to the neighborhood. He struck out 167 batters on his way to a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. You know what you're getting. Semien is a great, reliable 2B option, which at this point, looks like a very shallow position heading into 2023. Strider has the makings of a bona fide ace and is only 24 years old. He batted third or fourth for most of 2022, but his skillset reads like a No. Though he upped his stock with his healthiest season in five years, it takes a lot to stand out at the star-studded shortstop position. At the end of the day, he is still Mike Trout, for better or worse. And if you keep him in the 1st you cant keep anyone else with a 1st. or If you bought him for He is an injury risk after playing in 136 last year and only 96 the year before. 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